A look at blackjack hands by percentage

Below are two card point total probabilities when playing blackjack.

Players Hand Probabilities: 

Blackjack dealt 4.8% (winning hand)
17-20 total 30.0% (automatic stand)
12-16 total 38.7% (decision hands)
4-11 total 26.5% (must hit) 

 When dealing blackjack, one of the more common complaints I hear from players is “How come you always give me 13 or 14?” 

 The probability of the player being dealt hands with a point value similar to 13 or 14, is almost 40% and provide a mathematical answer to that very common player question. 

Conversely, the odds of the player being dealt a blackjack is 4.8%.  At less than 5% of your hands, it is easy to see why players feel like they don’t come around very often. 

 The word most commonly heard after dealing a player a blackjack is “Finally“. 

Some probabilities on the Dealer’s hands: 

1) Blackjack or 21 – 12.2% chance.      

2) 20 points – 17.6% chance               

3) 19 points – 13.5% chance                    

4) 18 points – 13.8% chance s

5) 17 points – 14.6% chance.                      

6) Dealer Busts – 28.3% chance.  

If the dealer busts 28.3% of the time that means conversely the odds that a dealer will not bust is 71.7%, before any cards are flipped. Something to considering when playing that very popular, optional buster bet bonus.  

Splitting 8’s

Play your best blackjack

Splitting 8’s when the dealer has a 10 or face card as their up card?

Should a player split 8’s against the dealers up card of a 10 when late surrender is offered?

Basic strategy says that you should always split aces and eights but it also tells you that you should surrender your hand when you have hand that is a total of 16 against a dealers 10/face card, so what about two eights? 

I am often asked this exact question, “Should I split my 8’s or surrender when the dealer showing an up card of 10/Face card”?.  

Based on a two-deck game, where you can not double after splitting, the expected value of splitting 8,s against a 10 is -0.480673, better than the -0.5 by surrendering.

 Yes, you still want to split your eights against even if late surrender is offered

 The card room I work for allows late surrender (late surrender is when surrendering half of your bet when it is your turn to act and is allowed after the dealer has checked for blackjack).  Even if you can’t double after a split you should still decline to surrender.

It’s pretty close, mathematically but you should split your eight’s, even when the casino offers late surrender or does not allow double after split.

Late Surrender-  Late Surrender is when the house offers you as a player the choice to fold your hand, at the cost of half of the original bet. You must make that after the dealer has checked for blackjack and the decision to surrender is made prior to taking any other action on the hand. For example, once you draw a third card, or split, or double down, surrender is no longer an option.

Blackjack Busting Percentage Chart

Blackjack Busting Percentage Chart.

About California Card Rooms

California Card Rooms

There are more than 100 card rooms in California ranging in size from one table to over 200 tables.

California law allows card rooms to play a variety of card games and the card rooms have no stake in the outcome of any of these games.

Players play against each other and pay a fee for use of the facilities. In some locations that fee is waived for players.

The types of games played in card rooms are:

Poker:
Variations of poker such as Hold’Em, Omaha and different variations of stud poker.

California Games (also called Asian Games):

Also called Cal Games, are games that are traditionally house banked games.

21st Century Blackjack, which plays like traditional blackjack. Different versions of Blackjack, like California Blackjack, or Spanish 21.

Cal Games also include games like Pai Gow poker (also called two-handed poker, or double hand poker) and Baccarat.

strong>Pai Gow Tiles:

California law allows player banked games, whereby one player can act as the banker/dealer and play against the other players at the table.

This format is used in the California Games, Blackjack type games.

Many of the card rooms have full food and beverage services and are located close to major airports and freeways

Check out the games being played at
your local card room , it ‘s not just for poker

For more information on card rooms in California contact: Golden State Gaming Association, 1127 11th Street, Suite 242, Sacramento, CA 95814, USA. Phone: 916/498-9500, Website: http://www.goldenstategaming.org

How to Open a Card Room in California

How to Open a Card Room in California

There are numerous poker rooms throughout the state of California. A poker room is an establishment running poker table games that is
open to the public.

Through the California Gambling Control Commission, a private citizen can apply and, if approved, open a poker/card room in California.

Currently, there is a moratorium on card rooms until the year 2020, therefore no new card room licenses are being issued.

A General Outline of the Steps.

1.- Apply for a Gambling Establishment License from the California Gambling Control Commission. All prospective owners must apply and pass an extensive background check conducted by the Department of Justice, Bureau of Gambling Control. The Bureau’s website states, “suitability is determined by a number of factors including but not limited to the applicant’s honesty, integrity, general character, reputation, habits, and financial and criminal history. Once this step is completed the application is scheduled for the next Commission meeting at which time a decision will be made to approve or deny the application”.

2.- Check local ordinances in your area to ensure no laws will be broken by opening a poker room.

3.- Obtain poker and Cal game approval from the Bureau for each game you wish to spread.

Each game must be individually approved by the Bureau before operations may begin. The Bureau will also check local ordinances to ensure operating a card room does not conflict with any local laws.

4.- Purchase necessary equipment and furniture. Hire employees. Set up the card room.

5.- Direct all employees to apply and be approved for a work permit. The Bureau of Gambling Control states that “any person employed in a gambling establishment as a dealer, secretary, waiter or waitress; floor, security, count room, cage, collection, surveillance or data-processing personnel; appropriate maintenance personnel; or any person whose employment duties require or authorize access to restricted gambling establishment areas must obtain a work permit. The work permit will be issued by the local jurisdiction or the Commission.” Once all work permits, licenses, and approvals are in place, the card room can begin operations.

The link to the State of California Department of Justice web site

http://oag.ca.gov/gambling/card

Each game must be individually approved by the Bureau before operations may begin. The Bureau will also check local ordinances to ensure operating a card room does not conflict with any local laws.

4.- Purchase necessary equipment and furniture. Hire employees. Set up the card room.

5.- Direct all employees to apply and be approved for a work permit. The Bureau of Gambling Control states that “any person employed in a gambling establishment as a dealer, secretary, waiter or waitress; floor, security, count room, cage, collection, surveillance or data-processing personnel; appropriate maintenance personnel; or any person whose employment duties require or authorize access to restricted gambling establishment areas must obtain a work permit. The work permit will be issued by the local jurisdiction or the Commission.” Once all work permits, licenses, and approvals are in place, the card room can begin operations.

The link to the State of California Department of Justice web site

http://oag.ca.gov/gambling/card

Betting Systems: The Martingale System

The Martingale System

The Martingale system is a very old and extremely simple system. It is based on the probability of losing infinite times in a row and is usually applied to ‘even money’ bets.

You start with one bet. If you win, you start again with one bet. If you lose, you double your bet. Each time you lose, you double your last lost bet. Eventually you are bound to win. When you win you would recover all your lost bets plus one unit (or chip) profit against your initial wager.

Although infallible in theory, the Martingale system requires a large bankroll, has a very low return and is a very risky one because of the maximum bet limits imposed by the casinos. If you run out of money or reach the house limit, you can lose a lot with no chance to recover your losses.

Negative progression, a variation of the Martingale System.

Assumes you will win before you reach the house limit and can bankroll the losing run. Bet an initial amount (N). For each win, on the next bet N again. For each lose bet N*x+N where x is the number of losing bets.

Thus if you finally win, you will recover all bet money, plus N for every loss. The progression would look like this on a $5 table. 5, 15, 35, 75, 155, 315, etc.

As with all negative progressions, and this one even more so, it requires more capital and is employed to force a winning outcome following a losing streak.

Blackjack Hand Busting Percentages

Players starting hand busting percentage:

The left side of this chart contatins the busting percentages for the player’s starting hand.  The players staring hand is the first two cards dealt to the player, and this percentage changes after the player hits.

Dealers busting percentge showing one card:

The right side of the chart contains the dealers busting percentage with a certain up card, before the hole card is revealed or the dealer hits.

Insider info: Dealer Hand Probabilities

Some probabilities on the Dealer’s hands :

1) Blackjack or 21 – 12.2% chance
2) 20 points – 17.6% chance
3) 19 points – 13.5% chance
4) 18 points – 13.8% chance
5) 17 points – 14.6% chance
6) Dealer Busts – 28.3% chance

The odds that a dealer will not bust is 71.7% chance (before any cards are flipped)

Insider Info: Player Hand Probabilities

Blackjack Players
Here’s the probability of receiving the following two card point total:

1) Blackjack – 4.8% (winning hand)
2) 17 – 20 – 30.0% (automatic stand)
3) 12 – 16 – 38.7% (decision hands)
4) 4 – 11 – 26.5% (must hit)

Notes:
There is a certain type of blackjack players who tend to complain a lot.

One of the more common complaints I hear is “How come you always give me 13 or 14?”

The probability of the player being dealt hands with point value similar to that are almost 40% and provide a mathematical answer to that question.

Conversely the odds of a player being dealt a blackjack is 4.8%. At less than 5% of your hands, it is easy to see why players feel like they don’t come around very often. The word most commonly heard after a player is dealt a blackjack is “Finally”.

California Law that provides for Cal Games in Card Rooms

The law that provides for card room blackjack.

PENAL CODE SECTION 330.11

California cardroom blackjack

330.11. “Banking game” or “banked game” does not include a controlled game if the published rules of the game feature a player-dealer position and provide that this position must be continuously and systematically rotated amongst each of the participants during the play of the game, ensure that the player-dealer is able to win or lose only a fixed and limited wager during the play of the game, and preclude the house, another entity, a player, or an observer from maintaining or operating as a bank during the course of the game. For purposes of this section it is not the intent of the Legislature to mandate acceptance of the deal by every player if the division finds that the rules of the game render the maintenance of or operation of a bank impossible by other means. The house shall not occupy the player-dealer position.